Daily Killings in the nation Drop Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The mean figure of per-day murders per month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new administrative figures. However, security analysts have advised that murder data may not point to better national safety.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of close to 55 murders a day in last November compared with roughly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the director of the nation's national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen over these past months is very significant,” the President said, explaining that the previous month the least number of murders were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Fierce organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the administration's heavily militarised efforts to confront the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in the past few years. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over four times higher than the US. Since then, killings have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her public safety strategy for an ostensibly sharper decline in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The central pillars of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater collaboration between government authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts cautioned that using homicide numbers to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is notably true considering the increase in other crimes such as abductions.

“That would be very good information if this was a reduction, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same period the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer useful for gauging the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to properly identify and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of daily homicides was additionally concerning because it could mask periods when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the daily average makes high peaks of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and this past November for serious offenses, per government data. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these measures, Mexico remains grappling with extreme violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. Last month there was a prominent killing of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the last year.

A short time after, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to create a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst remarked.